If we want to know what’s to happen in the future, we begin by studying history and then examining trends. (But let’s not forget that some future events will not have been forethought by anyone – like the suddenness of the collapse of communist regimes in Russia and Eastern Europe).

I invited a conference of Victorian (Australian) pastors to think of some statements which are true today about churches in their State, but were not true10-20 years ago.

I woke the other morning at 4 am thinking about all this, and randomly listed about 50 items. Here are some of them (and I’ve added a couple of insights from conferees).

Some of these will apply to churches in your area/situation, others won’t. But all of them should provide grist for thought and reflection wherever you are.

* First a quote from St Gregory the Great: ‘It is better that scandals arise than the truth be silenced’. Not all of these trends will be palatable for everyone. I’m simply reporting what I’ve experienced as I’ve preached in and consulted with many churches in this State.

* There’s no longer a ‘One model fits all’ church. (As the movie ‘Chocolat’ suggests, we moderns want chocolates ‘selected just for you!’). Older-style parish churches, like corner stores, are struggling and dying, particularly in the inner and blue-collar suburbs. Most parish churches don’t have the ‘critical mass’ to encourage most first-timers to come back again. Only three broad models of ‘doing church’ are thriving – regional churches, boutique-type groups (catering for a particular clientele), and ‘franchises’ (like the burgeoning Vineyard churches). Note the parallels with modern shopping habits.

* Church attendance has declined since the 1960s. In Australia, 40% in 1961 claimed to attend church at least monthly, down to 24% by 1980 and 20% by 1999.

* More people worship in house churches than ever before, and they’re networking with other house churches (Oikos Ministry). And there are more churches meeting in cafes/restaurants and pubs, more Christians are organising ‘street parties’ etc. Many large regional ‘Boomer’ churches are developing smaller satellite alternative congregations under their umbrella.

* More churches are asking the courageous question: ‘What does our community need?’ rather than ‘What’s good for us and our growth?’ And more ‘evangelical’ churches (though not yet the fundamentalists) are open to social justice issues. There are more church-sponsored Charity Shops. Church-people are giving more money to ministries of compassion like World Vision and Tear Fund.

* ‘Christendom’ is over for most Christian denominations: we are more conscious of the inherently abusive dimensions of the ‘clergy/laity’ and male/female divides.

* A Victorian Baptist Church exists primarily as a house of prayer, and has most worship services on Fridays (Beth Tephilah Ministry, Williamstown). Another Baptist Church is a kind of contemplative order, chanting some of its worship-songs in Latin (Breakwater, with services on Thursdays and Saturdays). Another has a Centre for Spiritual Direction attached to it (Wellspring, at Ashburton Baptist). And two others have saints’ names in their titles: (Community Church of St Mark, Clifton Hill, St. Luke’s Baptist Community, Abbotsford).

* Currently about 30-40 Baptist Churches practise ‘Open Membership’ (up from about five twenty years ago), recognising the validity of other churches’ baptism. There is a similar movement in all mainline churches.

* The four largest churches in their denominations in Victoria exist today – Crossway Baptist (the largest Baptist Church ever in Australia); Mt. Evelyn Christian Fellowship (ditto for the Churches of Christ); Waverley Christian Fellowship (Victoria’s largest-ever Pentecostal Church, maybe the second or third largest in Australia’s Pentecostal history); St. Hilary’s Kew (probably Australia’s largest Anglican congregation ever).

* One thing probably hasn’t changed: across the board there are still very few churches which will truly accept people like ex-prisoners, homosexuals, transsexuals, drug addicts etc. According to a survey a few years ago, in thirty percent of Victorian Baptist churches, if someone presented themselves to the ‘door steward’ as a practising homosexual, they’d have a problem getting in. However, more parachurch missional groups are catering for these people. Whilst more mainline churches accept divorced people, and women-in-leadership, these still feel stigmatised in theologically conservative congregations. But within and from churches there are more creative/entrepreneurial missional activities of all kinds than ever before (eg. there are more 12-step type programs sponsored by the church).

* There’s more acceptance of theological and other pluralisms in all the mainline churches (but probably not in fundamentalist churches).

* Youth work is more community-based (rather than having a predominant intra-church orientation).

* Non-sexist/gender-free language is now the norm in mainline churches, for preaching, Bible reading, and hymns/songs, but fundamentalist groups are slow to catch up with this movement towards justice and courtesy for women. And the more liberal churches are attempting to de-masculinize God – and sometimes even Jesus (but not Satan :-).

* Churches still worshipping basically as their grandparents did are decreasing numerically – across all denominations/groups. Very few churches which have organ-only accompaniment for their worship are growing numerically.

* Evangelicals in mainline denominations are more disenchanted with the ecumenical/liberal emphases of their denominational leaders. There’s more suspicion of church (and all other) authorities, bearing out the comment by sociologist Robert Merton in the 1960s/1970s that ‘all institutions are inherently degenerative’.

* More church-people are attending universities and other tertiary institutions, and are exposed to more ideas which may conflict with their religious presuppositions. And more discipling/ mentoring of young people is done by parachurch groups (in addition to the old stalwarts Scripture Union and Intervarsity Fellowship/Australian Fellowship of Evangelical Students, we have a plethora of youth- and campus-based organisations, among them the Navigators, Campus Crusade, Students for Christ, and other Pentecostal/charismatic groups).

* Are children and young people more ‘quarantined’ from serious interactions with adults? I don’t know the answer to this one.

* Ethical issues are now much more complex – particularly in the field of bioethics. Every denomination is formulating ‘Professional Standards’ criteria, dealing with issues like ministerial ethics, sexual abuse etc.

* There’s a missionary order within the Churches of Christ – Urban Neighbours of Hope, Springvale – where they take vows of poverty, service and obedience. (One of its ministries, a club for unchurched teenage girls – led, incidentally, by our daughter Lindy – has a waiting-list for girls wanting to join, it’s so popular!). Do you know of another church-based organisation with a waiting-list?

* 12 out of 43 Brethren Churches/Assemblies in Victoria have part or full time pastors. Those which don’t are generally declining numerically (all around Australia).

* Alpha Courses are everywhere (except in ‘anti-charismatic’ theologically conservative churches).

* A Uniting Church Minister has been inducted into a Roman Catholic community – Rev. Dr. Robin Pryor, Pallotti College.

* There are about 60 Chinese Churches in Melbourne alone, and more churches have ethnic congregations worshipping in their facilities.

* A Baptist minister – Rev. Tim Costello – has more media opportunities than any Victorian clergyperson anyone can remember!

* A Presbyterian Church (Scots Church Melbourne) has recently had two ordained Baptist clergy on their staff.

* Church Growth thinking has moved from the Fuller/Wagner model to ‘Natural Church Development’ (Christian Schwarz). Schwarz says healthy churches have a sense of humour. (The Fuller people hadn’t discovered that! Amazing that Germans can teach Americans about having fun :-)!

* There are more chaplains in industry, sporting clubs and schools etc. Although fewer children are in R.I. classes, more children from State schools go to Christian camp/ conference centres for their school camps. (An important book: John H. Westerhoff, III ‘s ‘Will Our Children Have Faith?).

* There are more ex-pastors – people who have left parish ministry for another religious or secular vocation (10,000 Australia-wide).

* More pastors/church leaders have mentors or spiritual directors. This is partly a concomitant of the need underlined by the men’s movement for ‘fathers/elders’ in our de-tribalized culture. More churches are seriously examining the notion of initiation of young adolescent boys into manhood, as emphasised by writers like Robert Bly and Steve Biddulph.

* More people are studying theology at a tertiary level. Most of them will not enter pastoral or cross-cultural ministries. (And these days the government will support you while you study theology – with Austudy). Also more are studying counselling – at the Catholic University, Tabor College, Kingsley College. And more are doing ecumenical religious courses in this- ‘n-that (Otira, St. Peters’ Eastern Hill, Wellspring etc.). More theological students heading for pastoral ministry have had a previous career: more of them have, say, only 20 years left until retirement.

* Entities like the National Church Life Surveys, and Christian Research Association are telling us more and more about our religious thinking and habits.

* We now have a licensed Christian radio station.

* Much more social work is being done by the Salvation Army, Brotherhood of St. Laurence, Anglicare, the Uniting Church etc.

* Mainline churches have generally stopped fighting about charismatic renewal; they sing ‘worship songs’ which have come out of the charismatic movement.

* More parishes have multiple staffs, bookshops, and counselling centres.

* There are more – many more – Christian schools.

* There are more – many more – women pastors and ‘clergy couples’.

* There are more – many more – Pentecostal/charismatic churches (though the growth in this movement is slowing).

* There’s probably less ‘nominalism’ in mainline churches.

* More congregations these days sit in a ‘wrap-around’ formation instead of like passengers in a bus.

* Many more churches are doing ‘overseas mission trips’, and more young people are giving up a couple of years for cross-cultural ministry with groups like YWAM and OM etc.

* More people are moving between churches, and out of churches.

* Hundreds of churches have websites. The vast majority of pastors now have email addresses. There is an increasing number of ‘cyber-worshippers’.

* The ‘mix’ of hymns/songs, prayers, etc. in worship services has changed (though a new ‘predictability’ about what happens is emerging).

* Waverley Christian Fellowship last year invested 1 million dollars in mission work, including designated giving from the congregation and from the missions budget and ‘tithe of the tithe’. Swanston Street Church of Christ still gives a quarter of a million dollars each year to cross-cultural missions.

* People are watching more TV (average 20 hours a week) – and more pornography on the Internet.

* New-age philosophies and non-mainstream religions are more popular. Newsagents tell us Astrology/New Age (and self-help) publications are their best-sellers.

* The September 11 / ‘apocalyptic factor’ saw a bump upwards in church attendance in the last nine months, but it’s now generally settling down to what it was before.

* Many pastors are increasingly conscious of the possibility that they’re ‘preaching to a world people aren’t in’.

* More ‘Ministers’ Associations’ are meeting more often for mutual encouragement, enrichment, and prayer, than to primarily organize ecumenical ventures. (In the outer urban City of Casey 30-60 pastors meet each week for prayer). And there are more women, Catholics, and Seventh Day Adventists attending.

* There are more ‘worship models’ practised today – Taize/reflective, ‘liturgical’, celebratory, evangelical, life-related, etc. More clapping happens in more churches these days. And in ‘regional’ churches, for the first time, they talk about ‘choreographing’ large-scale worship experiences.

* The Roman Catholic Church has witnessed increasing pressure to involve the laity and women more; there are more clamant questions about compulsory celibacy; and since the recent pedophile furore involving American priests and cardinals, an increasing demand for zero tolerance of child sexual abuse – and, from Andrew Greeley and other high-profile Catholics, a call for bishops to elected by the people. (Remember G. K. Chesterton’s observation? ‘Getting things done (institutionally) is like elephants mating: it is done at a high level, accomplished with a great deal of roaring and screaming, and takes two years to produce results, which sometimes fall to the ground with a thud!’).

* From a Baptist retiree: [A] 20 years ago when I entered a sanctuary 5 minutes before worship, it was hushed and many prayed. Now, 5 minutes before starting time, there is a buzz of conversation. [B] 20 years ago, service began with either the Doxology, or a sung introit, followed by a prayer. These days many churches start with a hearty welcome to everyone and a prayer may not occur until 10 or 15 minutes into the service. [C] 20, certainly 30 years ago most men wore a tie to church. Now it’s only ‘oldies’ who do. This is as true of the pastor (if a male) as well as the laity.

* Probably more people are saying ‘no’ to the question: ‘Would you be happy to bring your non-Christian friend to church?’ (One researcher said: ‘More deconverted Christians are going back to church, only to realise why they stopped going in the first place’). More pastors are saying to me: ‘If I weren’t the pastor here, I don’t think I’d choose this church to attend’.

* Comparing the 1986 census figures with 1996 (2001 census data will probably be available in June 2002), those identifying themselves as Catholics rose by 18%, compared with a population increase of 14% in that decade. In the same period those with ‘no religion’ rose from 12% of the population to 16%.

* The recently released National Church Life Survey 2001 found that while 82% of Australian churchgoers felt a strong sense of belonging to their local congregation, the young were less satisfied. Only 12% of 15-18-year-olds attending Catholic churches said they were very satisfied with what is offered for youth and 41% were satisfied. Of those aged 19-25,only 10% were very satisfied and 36% satisfied.

MORE ON THE BROADER PICTURE

My friend Rev. Dr. Philip Hughes (Christian Research Association) offers these trends:

* The average age of mainline church-goers is increasing. In 1996 it was about 60 for the Uniting Church, 57 for Anglicans, 52 for Catholics, 44 for Baptists, 38 for Pentecostals. [Compares about 41 for the population. Note these figures are based only on ‘adults’ and do not include children 0 to 14].

* There are now more Pentecostals worshipping each week in Australia (more than 180,000) than Anglicans (less than 180,000).

* Twenty years ago the Uniting Church had twice as many worshipping members as Baptists. Now they’re of similar size.

* Politically and theologically, the church on average has moved to the right – mainly because we’ve lost a cohort of ‘children of the left’. (Three quarters of all young people attending churches take the Bible ‘literally’. It was closer to half twenty years ago).

* There are now many more people attending church services outside Sundays – due to churches providing more options, the growing number of house churches etc.

* ‘Religion’ is now more focussed on resourcing individual needs than adherence to ‘community’.

* Twenty years ago it was predicted that secularism would increase, and consequently spirituality would decrease (Bruce Wilson’s ‘Can God Survive in Australia?’, the earlier Peter Berger etc.) The trend is the other way. In 1983 56% of Australians were ‘religious’; in 1995 it had risen to 58%.

Rowland Croucher

May 2002