September 25, 2012

By Basem Shabb

The Daily Star

As civil war engulfs Syria leaving a tragic stalemate, the fate of Christians in the country hangs in the balance.

The Vatican and others have addressed the condition of the Christian community in the Arab world, not only in Syria but also in the Levant in general, as if the myriad Christian sects were a single entity. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, the Christians make up theologically opposed, geographically dispersed and politically diverse communities, unlike the Sunnis, Alawites, Kurds and Druze.

A reductionist approach applying a one-size-fits-all standard to the Christians could well jeopardize the Christian presence in Syria. There are two grand approaches to the situation in Syria, and they each encompass certain Christian groups in the country and elsewhere. On the one hand are the proponents of what is effectively a largely Sunni revolt against the rule of the Assad family; on the other are those who back President Bashar Assad, fearing Sunni fundamentalism and the serious repercussions affecting minorities should the regime fall.

On its own, adherence to either of these options by Christians will not protect them in the protracted and bloody Syrian conflict. Nor will a prevalent anti-Western and pro-Palestinian stance for that matter. Look at the plight of Palestinian Christians and their ill-fated embrace of Arab nationalism and resistance. Sixty-four years after the Nakba, Palestinian Christians are more marginalized than ever before. They are suffering under the rule of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and their overall numbers are dwindling precipitously.

Iraqi Christians, who were oblivious to regional dynamics and committed themselves to an injudicious alliance with the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein, have suffered equally from both Sunni and Shiite persecution. Yet they too espoused Arab nationalism and echoed its slogans. Indeed the only safe haven left for the Christians of Iraq is among the country’s non-Arab Kurdish population.

In Syria, there are different Christian communities, and they are scattered across a varied political, religious and ethnic landscape. The Greek Orthodox, the largest Christian community in Syria, is primarily concentrated in the western parts of the country and in Damascus. That means they are in areas currently controlled by the regime of President Bashar Assad and his Alawite minority.

The Syriacs, who form the second largest Christian community in Syria, are primarily concentrated east of the Euphrates River. They live in a large swathe of fertile land that is bordered by Kurdish-majority areas in Turkey to the north and Iraqi Kurdistan to the east. Northeast Syria is mainly Kurdish and effectively autonomous today.

As for a majority of Catholics and Armenians, they are concentrated in Sunni-dominated middle Syria, principally in Aleppo province, which is close to Turkey. The area is heavily infiltrated by the Free Syrian Army and has been the scene of intense fighting.

Therefore, the Christian tapestry in Syria shows specific concentrations in three distinct areas, each with its own political, sectarian or ethnic particularities. Given that the current balance of power will likely endure in the absence of any dramatic foreign intervention in the Syrian conflict, it becomes apparent that no single policy can safeguard all the Christians of Syria. That is why, to help guarantee the broad community’s survival in the midst of chaos, each community must adapt to its own political and cultural milieu.

A pro-uprising stance will only endanger the Greek Orthodox in Alawite-controlled areas, whereas a pro-Assad stance may have already sealed the fate of Catholics in Aleppo. And if Christians favor anti-Western rhetoric, this may be counterproductive for Syriacs living in predominantly Kurdish areas. As the conflict waxes and wanes, there will be no winners, only survivors.

No effort should be spared to ensure the continued presence of these Christian Syrian communities, amid a protracted and increasingly sectarian crisis. Meanwhile, the notion that Lebanon’s Christians would gain from an exodus of Syrian Christians is absurd. Any displacement of the Syrian community would likely be irreversible, as with the Palestinian, Iraqi and even Lebanese Christians, whose numbers have been steadily falling in recent decades. Like hundreds of thousands of Christians before them, the Christians of Syria will migrate to the West. Lebanon, contrary to common belief, is only home to its own Christians, not to Middle Eastern Christians at large.

The salvation of Syria’s Christians lies not in ethereal notions or grandiose ideologies but rather in a sound policy based on complex regional dynamics. That means the Christians must, for their own protection, adapt to their surroundings in a bid for survival. Sweeping moral directives will fall on deaf ears. Eastern Christianity cannot be saved from bad judgment, and good judgment often comes from bad experience. God knows Eastern Christians have had quite a bit of that.

Basem Shabb is a Lebanese parliamentarian and a member of the parliamentary committee on defense. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.