CSIRO scientists say warmer world wager with Maurice Newman a safe bet

Some of Australia’s top climate scientists, including those from the CSIRO, have said they will be willing to bet Tony Abbott’s business adviser Maurice Newman $10,000 that the world will warm over the next 20 years.

Newman, who is the head of the government’s business advisory council, wrote on Wednesday that “what we now see is the unraveling of years of shoddy science and sloppy journalism” over climate change, praising newspapers owned by Rupert Murdoch for being the only ones not “captured” by the IPCC.

Newman’s article, published in the Australian, quoted contrarian US physicist Richard Lindzen who said he would be willing to take bets that the average global temperature would be lower than today in 20 years’ time. Newman added “Any takers?”

The challenge has already been taken up by Nobel prize-winning physicist Brian Schmidt, who said he would be willing to bet $10,000 that average temperatures would be higher in 20 years’ time, consistent with the predictions of mainstream science.

“So Mr Newman – I am prepared to put $10,000 on the line that the average Earth surface air temperature in a three-year average (2013-2015 compared to 2033-2035) will be warmer 20 years from now,” Schmidt wrote in a blog, also published by the Australian.

“Ten thousand dollars is a lot of money to me, but since I am about 99% sure that the Earth is warming due to anthropogenic causes, it seems a deal too good to pass up.”

Schmidt has been joined by eight other scientists, including from the government’s own science agency, the CSIRO, who confirmed to Guardian Australia they would be prepared to bet Newman money that temperatures would be higher in 20 years’ time, based on a three-year average.

The CSIRO’s Dr John Church, who is also an IPCC lead author, said he would take up the $10,000 bet, while Dr Tony Hirst, deputy research program director, said he would bet $500 based on “clear terms” of a three or five-year temperature average.

The other scientists include David Karoly of Melbourne University, Will Steffen of the Climate Council, and Dave Griggs, director of the Monash Sustainability Institute.

Prof Andrew Blakers, director of the centre for sustainable energy systems at the Australian National University, said he would be willing to bet $10,000, placed into an escrow account along with a “legally binding agreement” over the payment of the funds.

“Let’s put real money on the table and do this properly,” said Blakers.

Ian Lowe, emeritus professor of science, technology and society at Griffith University, said only a “catastrophic meteorite impact” could avoid the “inevitability” of higher temperatures in 20 years’ time. Lowe said he would be willing to join Schmidt but questioned the viability of the wager. He said: “He [Newman] was born in April 1938, so he is nearly 76.

“That means he will almost certainly not be around in 20 years time to acknowledge he is totally wrong and pay out on his ill-considered wager. For that matter, as I am now 71, I am equally unlikely to be here to collect.”

Dr Alex Sen Gupta, of the University of NSW’s climate centre, said it was a “pretty safe bet” and that he would have “no chance” of losing his $10,000, based on his understanding of climate science.

In addition to the scientists, economist John Quiggin said he’d be prepared to bet $10,000 to prove Newman wrong.

Newman, who has worked in the financial sector and is a former chairman of the ABC, has regularly called climate science into question.

The amount of warming by the end of the century has been projected between 1.5C to 4C or more, based on various carbon emissions scenarios. IPCC assessments predict warming of about 0.2C a decade in the next 20 years, again depending on emissions, meaning that exhaustive peer reviewed findings by the world’s leading climate scientists suggest the world will be about 0.4C warmer than today in 20 years’ time.

Newman did not seem likely to take up the wager. His representative said he was “interested in empirical evidence, not gambling”.

“He simply repeated a quote attributed to Prof Richard Lindzen and asked whether anyone wanted to take it up,” read a statement sent to Guardian Australia.

“On the basis of this, Prof Schmidt decided to make a $10,000 bet with him, the outcome of which, Mr Newman says, he will be unlikely to see.

“It is possible Prof Schmidt won’t either. However, he says someone younger may want to take the professor up on it.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/17/csiro-scientists-say-warmer-world-wager-with-maurice-newman-a-safe-bet?CMP=ema_632