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Apologetics

Middle East Chaos: a Scary Lesson in Geopolitics, History & Geography

Mid-East’s painted borders begin to blur

Date
Paul McGeough

Chief foreign correspondent

On parade: A volunteer in the "Peace Brigades" in the southern holy Shiite city of Najaf.

On parade: A volunteer in the “Peace Brigades” in the southern holy Shiite city of Najaf. Photo: AP

Washington: Was it ironic, or simply macabre, that former US vice-president Dick Cheney put his head above the parapet this week, to observe of Barack Obama’s handling of Iraq: “Rarely has a US President been so wrong about so much at the expense of so many”?

Maybe. Cheney is the bloke who knew that Iraq just had to be invaded in 2003 because of Saddam Hussein’s stockpiles of WMD. Yet it would be churlish to demand that he butt out of the debate, because Cheney knows a thing or two about Iraq – here he is in 1994, at length and presciently: “Once you got to Iraq and took it over, and took down Saddam Hussein’s government, then what are you going to put in its place? That’s a very volatile part of the world, and if you take down the central government of Iraq you can easily end up seeing pieces of Iraq fly off. Part of it the Syrians would like to have to the west. Part of eastern Iraq, the Iranians would like to claim, fought over for eight years. In the north you’ve got the Kurds, and if the Kurds spin loose and join with the Kurds in Turkey, then you threaten the territorial integrity of Turkey. It’s a quagmire.”

We’ve been talking about bits and pieces of Iraq flying off probably since the day after Britain’s Mark Sykes and France’s François Georges-Picot struck a deal on how to carve up the region should the Ottoman Empire collapse as a result of World War I.

Their map has a wonderful old-world charm, with its colour-washed spheres of influence – French (blue), British (pink), Italian (green) and two others, Russian and ‘international’ (which are slightly different shades of a mustardy hue). And of course, there are areas A and B which are identified as ‘independent Arab states’ – A, which was to become Syria being in the French sphere; and B which became Iraq in the British sphere.

More recently, we’ve had the Ralph Peters map – a former American military officer who chopped up the whole region in an effort that was published in the US Armed Forces Journal in 2006. Peters happily dismembers Iraq, but Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia too.

US foreign affairs analysts Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic (2008) and Robin Wright in The New York Times (2013) went for broke in their cartography too – Wright’s offering was provocatively titled “How 5 Countries Could Become 14”. By contrast, US vice-president Joe Biden was more modest in the early days of the Obama administration – he wanted to put a meat-cleaver through Iraq to create three states – one for each of the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.

The latest map offering comes from ISIL – the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – an Iraqi-led al-Qaeda spin-off that has joined with other Iraqi Sunni militias and international volunteers to take cities in the north of Iraq and to set their sights on Baghdad and beyond.

ISIL’s unnamed cartographers carve out the movement’s proposed intermediate caliphate straddling the border between Syria and Iraq – replete with oil wells.

The term ‘perfect storm’ is overused, but how else to describe this heady mix of geopolitical enablers for the chaos in today’s Middle East – the Cold War ends; the development of alternate energy sources diminishes the strategic value of the region; Washington insists on the strategic brilliance of invading Iraq; the Arab Spring comes and goes, rendering Syria and Libya ripe for dismantling; and Washington’s hand-picked Shiite leader Nouri al-Maliki effectively disenfranchises the country’s significant Sunni minority.

Not surprisingly, much of the debate about countries breaking up in the last decade focused on Iraq. Remember all the talk of a greenfields site for democracy in the Middle East, how it would be a multi-ethnic and sectarian model for how different types should get along in a fractious region?

But the construct with which the Bush Administration saddled Iraqis after leading the invasion that forced the collapse of the regime of Saddam Hussein was unsustainable – so it was only ever a matter of when, not if, we might see events as they are unfolding today.

Now three is the magic number. Wright sees Libya torn three ways by tribal and regional rivalries – he names these new countries Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica. In Syria, the incendiary forces at work are sectarian and ethnic – Wright envisages the dictator Bashar al-Assad’s minority Alawites retreating to their ancestral lands in a mountain strip that hugs the Mediterranean and the Sunni regions in the east joining their co-religionists in the west of Iraq.

The big winners amid so much speculation are the Kurds – a band of Kurdish communities hugging the northern border of Syria will likely want to join the Kurds of Iraq in their economically booming semi-autonomous statelet in the north of Iraq. And if they do, what becomes of the Kurds in adjoining booming regions of Turkey and Iran?

If all the Kurds came together, they would be a nation of maybe 30 million.

Just as the invasion of Iraq has had unintended consequences for Washington, so too has Saudi Arabia’s support for the Sunni rebels in Syria.

Writing at New Eastern Outlook, analyst Alexander Orlov observes tartly that the “Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia and Qatar” did not understand that they would awaken national movements and exacerbate the age-old Sunni-Shiite conflict by escalating the Syrian conflict: “The redrawing of the map of the region is fraught with the collapse of the monarchies of Arabia and the replacement of their conservative regimes that observe the norms of 17th-century Islam with democratic governance by the younger generation.”

Barack Obama’s reluctance to involve the US in the implosion of the region – notwithstanding Thursday’s announcement that 300 American military advisers are being dispatched to Iraq – suggests a willingness to let the regional pieces fall where they may. Yet the thrust of the rhetoric from all sides in Washington and other Western capitals is that ‘stability’ requires the region to remain confined within its ill-fitting borders.

That was not the case in the days of Sykes and Picot. Their agreement is dated 1916 – it constituted forward planning based on a belief that the Ottoman Empire would have to be replaced by something. It was proactive, not reactive; and needless to say it was all about vested interests that had precious little to do with any real sense of a community of interest among the populations that were being herded within new frontiers.

Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a research fellow at London Metropolitan University’s Global Policy Institute was as prescient as Cheney, when she wrote in 2012 as Obama won election for a second term in the White House: “As Obama settles into the Oval office and casts his gaze again beyond US politics, he may well be reminded that few eyes were on the ball when the Arab uprisings appeared to erupt suddenly in the spring of 2011, catching pundits and politicians by surprise and repositioning Washington’s Middle East policies.

“Today, we may be at risk of the same inattention again – if we take our eyes off the ball now, we may miss the next big shift: a redrawing of the Middle East map that is triggering a new Cold War with Syria and Iran at its heart.”

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/mideasts-painted-borders-begin-to-blur-20140621-zsh4w.html#ixzz35KmAvJ9l

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A powerful and merciless force has emerged on the world stage

As Middle East borders are redrawn by jihadists, the West should regard Iran as an ally

An image made available by the jihadist Twitter account Al-Baraka news on 11 June 2014 allegedly shows militants of the jihadist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) hanging the Islamic Jihad flag on a pole at the top of an ancient military fort after they cut a road through the Syrian-Iraqi border between the Iraqi Nineveh province and the Syrian town of Al-Hasakah

Isis militants on the Iraq/Syria border: Iraq as we have understood it for the past century or so no longer exists Photo: AFP/HO/ALBARAKA NEWS
It is almost one hundred years since Sir Mark Sykes, an otherwise forgettable British politician, entered into an agreement with a French diplomat called François Georges-Picot (great uncle of the former president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing) to carve up the Middle East after the end of the First World War.
The arrangement was kept secret, and for understandable reasons. In the United States, President Wilson was an enthusiastic advocate of national self-determination. He would have been appalled had he known that the British and French were determined to share out the remains of the collapsed Ottoman empire between them.
Of more immediate importance, Sharif Hussein of Mecca launched the Arab revolt against the Ottomans in June 1916. In return, the British had pledged the Arabs full independence, a promise that Lloyd George casually betrayed once it was over.
Though sordid and cynical, the Sykes-Picot arrangement endured far longer than anyone had a right to expect. Out of it arose the modern states of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (followed in due course by Saudi Arabia, Israel and Jordan).
Ninety-eight years later, however, Sykes-Picot is finally starting to collapse. Look at a map and (fortified by the notorious straight lines of the agreement) Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are all still theoretically present and correct. In practice, though, a series of spectacular events are steadily turning their maps into works of fiction.
Sir Mark Sykes, who with François Georges-Picot carved up the Middle East after the First World War Yesterday’s fall of Mosul (ironically a key point of dispute between the French and the British 100 years ago, because oil had just been discovered there) shows vividly that Iraq as we have understood it for the past century or so no longer exists. In the north, the Kurdish region has become an autonomous state, and it cannot be long before it declares itself formally independent. Kurdistan is guarded by a system of checkpoints and command posts that are impossible to penetrate. Indeed, any Arab who enters without proper credentials disappears, and so do all his friends and family. This may sound brutal, but it does explain why Erbil, the Kurdish capital, has been almost as safe from terror attack as London over the past decade. Meanwhile the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is building a sectarian state around Baghdad and the south capable of commanding the support of most Shia Muslims. The fate of the remainder of his country, however, is of extraordinary interest, because it is falling very fast into the hands of a terrifyingly violent new entity called the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis). Isis recognises none of the rules inherited from Sykes-Picot. Photographs on Facebook show its fighters dismantling border points and burning their passports, thus making a virtue of statelessness. However, Isis does levy taxes and controls a tranche of territory ranging from northern Iraq through to eastern Syria. No local army seems capable of confronting it. Its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, says he is a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed, thus claiming to be more than a mere political leader or general. According to one Arab observer, al-Baghdadi “has designated himself as a global leader of the jihad fighters in particular and Muslims in general, and as a herald of the caliphate”. He has broken off former links with al‑Qaeda. Bin Laden and his successor, al‑Zawahiri, aimed their fire against what they called “the far enemy” – in other words, the United States and its local allies and clients. Isis, by contrast, more violent than al-Qaeda, is driven by merciless hatred of all sects and minorities that fail to endorse its bigoted and narrow ideology. This has started to terrify the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, the source of so much of its cash and arms. Isis fighters deny the legitimacy of any secular power, including the Saudi King Abdullah. And the Saudis fear that one day soon, the Isis jihadists will return home with a vengeance. (As with Soviet Russia and apartheid South Africa, it is obvious the Saud regime will at some stage collapse, but impossible to judge when.) Isis also has the range and power to strike at will in the West, because so many young Muslims have travelled from Europe to join up. Indeed, it has already started to do so. The recent murder of four people in the Jewish museum in Brussels was carried out by a young Frenchman called Mehdi Nemmouche, who had fought alongside Isis in Syria before returning home on his murderous mission. These jihadists are able to move more freely and across a greater range than ever before. Their area of operations stretches from northern Iraq, through Syria and across north Africa to Libya and down towards Nigeria. For the first time, they directly control huge swathes of land. As with the Bolsheviks in 1917 or the fascists in the Thirties, a merciless new force capable of deploying horrifying violence has emerged on the world stage. In order to understand this new phenomenon, it is essential to grasp what brought it into being. Its emergence can be traced straight back to the Iraq invasion. Some of its fighters (who bring formidable military capability) are former Ba’athist soldiers. Others learnt their trade with the so-called “Awakening fighting” groups created by the US to head off an all-out Iraqi civil war back in 2007. The Western campaign to dislodge President Assad of Syria was another contributing factor. While our leaders were ready to call for Assad to go, they were unwilling to intervene directly to dislodge him. Instead, mainly through allies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the West supported militant rebel groups which have since mutated into Isis and other al‑Qaeda connected militias. The comparison with the terrible mistakes made by Western intelligence agencies during the Afghan war against the Soviets is startling. We supported al‑Qaeda, which later turned on us. Thanks to this policy, Pakistan now faces a permanent terrorist insurgency bordering on civil war. It is very likely that Turkey (and probably Jordan and Saudi Arabia) will face the same problem in due course as a result of the Syrian backlash. Meanwhile, jihadists have found a new terror base from which they can mount attacks on the West. All this was predictable at the start of the Syrian war – indeed, President Assad warned of it. How can the West hope to contain the monster it helped to create? The countries we formed at the stroke of a pen in the Sykes-Picot treaty 98 years ago are being washed away. Only Egypt and Iran, states whose history stretches back for thousands of years rather than decades, are certain to survive intact. With Egypt facing grave problems, Iran has emerged as the most stable and powerful country in the Middle East. Again and again since the 9/11 attack on the twin towers in 2001, the Iranians have offered cooperation against al-Qaeda and its allies. These entreaties have repeatedly been turned down. It is time for President Obama and David Cameron to acknowledge that we have been helping to sponsor terror for the past few decades. We have to choose new allies, and they must include Iran. If we carry on with our present deluded course, the threat to the West will only grow more dangerous. ~~ And this:

A New Muslim Force For Unimaginable Terror

London’s Daily Telegraph really is the world’s best news source. Compared to the American papers and networks with their mix of shallow left wing ideologies and celebrity gossip, the Telegraph offers sensible conservative, sound and objective reporting. This article by Peter Osborne, combined with embedded links, explains succinctly and brilliantly the horrible morass in the Middle East. If you want to understand why the Middle East is dissolving into a state of anarchic terror, bloodshed and tribalistic slaughter–all motivated by Jihadists read Osborne’s article. He outlines how a combination of historic French, British and now American incompetence, greed and lust for power have created the maelstrom. Iraq? All we have done after spending billions of dollars and tossing away thousands of lives is to create a state disintegrating into total chaos. The Kurdish area to the North has become an isolated independent state…

Meanwhile the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is building a sectarian state around Baghdad and the south capable of commanding the support of most Shia Muslims. The fate of the remainder of his country, however, is of extraordinary interest, because it is falling very fast into the hands of a terrifyingly violent new entity called the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis). Isis recognises none of the rules inherited from Sykes-Picot. Photographs on Facebook show its fighters dismantling border points and burning their passports, thus making a virtue of statelessness. However, Isis does levy taxes and controls a tranche of territory ranging from northern Iraq through to eastern Syria. No local army seems capable of confronting it. Its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, says he is a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed, thus claiming to be more than a mere political leader or general. According to one Arab observer, al-Baghdadi “has designated himself as a global leader of the jihad fighters in particular and Muslims in general, and as a herald of the caliphate”.

Notice that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi claims descent from Mohammed. Once you bring in the religious aspect any hope of negotiation is lost. These people don’t know the meaning of compromise, negotiation or diplomacy. Their once goal is to establish, by force Sharia law on the whole world. This is where the secular powers are so often so incompetently stupid. They continue to have a huge blind spot about the importance of religion in world affairs. Because they believe in separation of church and state–by which they mean religion is a weekend past time for nice people–they cannot see that it motivates everything other people do and that unless you deal with the religious dimension you will get nowhere–and how are you going to discuss religion with a Jihadist? Invite him to a prayer meeting in a garden? His RSVP will be a grenade and he’ll lop off your head with a butter knife at the reception afterward….and praise Allah for the ability to do so. ISIS fighters are the thugs, like Boko Haram in Nigeria who despise all Muslims who do not hold to their own narrow views, despise all Muslims who have compromised with Western decadent values and are willing to be-head any Jew or Christian who crosses their path. They are gathering strength across the Middle East and North Africa, picking up the disenchanted, unemployed and angry youths left over from the fall of the Middle Eastern dictatorships. And Osborne is convinced it is our fault:

In order to understand this new phenomenon, it is essential to grasp what brought it into being. Its emergence can be traced straight back to the Iraq invasion. Some of its fighters (who bring formidable military capability) are former Ba’athist soldiers. Others learnt their trade with the so-called “Awakening fighting” groups created by the US to head off an all-out Iraqi civil war back in 2007. The Western campaign to dislodge President Assad of Syria was another contributing factor. While our leaders were ready to call for Assad to go, they were unwilling to intervene directly to dislodge him. Instead, mainly through allies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the West supported militant rebel groups which have since mutated into Isis and other al‑Qaeda connected militias.

It’s a huge mess made worse by the incompetence of the Western powers It ain’t pretty and it ain’t gonna get better any time soon. Read the whole Osborne article here.

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/standingonmyhead/2014/06/a-new-muslim-force-for-unimaginable-terror.html ~~

Western invasion paved way for Iraq’s terror crisis

Date
Waleed Aly

Iraq failed by ‘Obama’s script’

Islamic militants storming Iraq are the inevitable result of the long-muddled US occupation that began in 2003, reports Paul McGeough.

Over 11 years ago we entered a war of choice on a pretext that was always dubious and proved ultimately false. There are several reasons we did this: a messianic belief in the democratisation of the Middle East; a desire to project Western power and install a compliant ruler in Saddam Hussein’s place; in Australia’s case, pursuing the US alliance.

But beneath them all lies one essential conceit: we did this because we thought we could. Perhaps some of our soldiers, and multiples more Iraqi civilians would die, but we figured that would be the limit of the fallout. At the very least we assumed our power would be enhanced. At our most delirious we might have believed we’d leave the world a better place.

Indeed that idea hasn’t gone away. When relentless mass uprisings in the Middle East began toppling dictators and promising democracy, the Iraq War’s apologists rushed to claim credit for the change. Saddam’s defeat had unleashed a wave of democratic fervour and a belief in the transience of rulers, so they reasoned. But today, as democracy in Egypt descends into farce and the uprisings in Syria have exploded into the most horrific civil war, this is perhaps not a legacy we should wish to claim.

Iraqi families fleeing violence in the northern Nineveh province.

Iraqi families fleeing violence in the northern Nineveh province. Photo: AFP

And now, there’s Iraq itself. Specifically Mosul, which this week fell to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Barely a decade after we set out to save the world, terrorists rule one of Iraq’s major cities. “We can’t beat them. We can’t,” says an Iraqi police officer. “They are well trained in street fighting and we’re not. We need a whole army to drive them out of Mosul.” Which might at least sound possible if it weren’t for the army colonel who explained that we’ve just witnessed “a total collapse of the security forces”. This is quite a spectacular step backwards.

The invasion of Iraq happened in strange times, about 18 months after the Twin Towers fell and when security was about hard military power and little else. Shock. Awe. President Bush’s original name for the war in Afghanistan gives us a good sense of the mood: Operation Infinite Justice. Justice is about balance and measure, not the excesses of infinity. Infinite Justice is the kind of thing you come up with when you think it is impossible to be too forceful; when you think justice subsists in bombing places to rubble.

As a result, we never truly bothered with trifling matters like sociology. Iraq was a theatre of domination and triumph – of missions accomplished. We scarcely noticed it was in fact a complicated society with significance to people well beyond its borders. By the time we discovered Sunnis and Shiites it was all a bit late. We had on our hands a full-scale, international insurgency.

Iraqi refugees from Mosul set up a tent at Khazir refugee camp.

Iraqi refugees from Mosul set up a tent at Khazir refugee camp.

And the truth is, we never really defeated it. Indeed the invasion has unleashed forces we simply cannot pretend to have under control. Mosul, after all, isn’t Fallujah or Baghdad with a reputation for fearsome violence. This is a city once held up as a model of Iraqi success: “a model for what Iraq would be like if they could emulate in Baghdad the progress we have made here”, in the words of one commanding officer in 2007 after the famous troop “surge” that was meant to have pacified the city.

But even so, it’s impossible to understand this turnaround in Mosul without looking just over the border, in Syria, where a ruler every bit as brutal as Saddam Hussein, is presently in the process of enacting mass violence against his own people. This is a ruler who has merrily danced across what Barack Obama declared to be his “red line” by using chemical weapons against them, proving that this red line didn’t signify much. Obama ran an anaemic campaign for military intervention in Syria that went nowhere. These days he regards Syria merely as “somebody else’s civil war”.

We will never know what would have happened had America intervened at that stage. But we do know that Bashar al-Assad had free reign to unleash brutal force, thereby radicalising the environment and laying down a magnet for Sunni terrorist groups. And we now know that those groups are enmeshed with those in Iraq. ISIS doesn’t see the border between the countries. It sees instead an area to be unified under its own rule. Mosul is in terrorist hands because we blew the lid off Iraq, then refused to help put it back on Syria. They are quickly becoming indistinct: the same crisis.

The contrast is remarkable: there’s the war with no meaningful pretext, and the pretext that had no war. Sure, this is explained partly by the fact that we’re dealing with two contrasting American presidents. But it’s also true that the disaster of Iraq exposed the limits of America’s power, and completely eroded its moral authority, leaving it with no standing, and no will to do anything about a genuine problem in Syria.

We haven’t yet come to terms with just how much damage the invasion of Iraq has done. It’s likely we won’t fully know for decades. But it’s clear that the blowback is already under way, and there’s every chance we’ll wake one day to find that Iraq evolves into the security problem it so emphatically wasn’t in 2003 when we grotesquely pretended otherwise.

Waleed Aly is an Age columnist. He hosts Drive on ABC Radio National and is a lecturer in politics at Monash University.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/western-invasion-paved-way-for-iraqs-terror-crisis-20140612-zs4s1.html#ixzz34qS9NDSB ~~

The Last Crusade: The First World War and the Birth of Modern Islam

Philip JenkinsABC RELIGION AND ETHICS18 JUN 2014

For Muslims, the First World War changed everything. What we think of today as modern Islam - assertive, self-confident, sectarian - is the product of the worldwide tumult of the Great War.

FOR MUSLIMS, THE FIRST WORLD WAR CHANGED EVERYTHING. WHAT WE THINK OF TODAY AS MODERN ISLAM – ASSERTIVE, SELF-CONFIDENT, SECTARIAN – IS THE PRODUCT OF THE WORLDWIDE TUMULT OF THE GREAT WAR.CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

 

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Seeing all the commemorations of the First World War centennial, many might ask what relevance such distant struggles can have for the modern world. Why do they matter? But if they look at the world’s most dangerous storm centres today – in Iraq and Syria, across the Middle East and South Asia – they will get their answer. In these regions, as in so much of the world, the First World War created our reality.

Out of the political ferment immediately following the war came the most significant modern movements within Islam, including the most alarming forms of Islamist extremism. So did the separatism that eventually gave birth to the Islamic state of Pakistan and the heady new currents transforming Iranian Shi’ism. From this mayhem also emerged what would become the Saudi state, dominating the holy places and rooted in strictly traditional notions of faith.

When the war started, the Ottoman Empire was the only remaining Islamic nation that could even loosely claim Great Power status. Its rulers knew, however, that Russia and other European states planned to conquer and partition it. Seizing at a last desperate hope, the Ottomans allied with Germany. When they lost the war in 1918, the Empire dissolved. Crucially, in 1924, the new Turkey abolished the office of the Caliphate, which at that point dated back almost 1,300 years. That marked a trauma that the Islamic world is still fighting to come to terms with.

How could Islam survive without an explicit, material symbol at its heart? The mere threat of abolition galvanized a previously quiet Islamic population in what was then British India. Previously, Muslims had been content to accept a drift to independence under Gandhi’s Hindu-dominated Congress party. Now, though, theKhilafat (Caliphate) movement demanded Muslim rights, and calls for a Muslim nation were not far off. That agitation was the origin of the schism that led to India’s bloody partition in 1947, and the birth of Pakistan.

How to live without a Caliph? Later Muslim movements sought various ways of living in such a puzzling and barren world, and the solutions they found were very diverse: neo-orthodoxy and neo-fundamentalism, liberal modernization and nationalism, charismatic leadership and millenarianism. All modern Islamist movements stem from these debates, and following intense activism, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was formed in 1928.

One of the founders of modern Islamism was Maulana Mawdudi, who offered a comprehensive vision of a fundamentalist Islam that could confront the modern world. Although Mawdudi was born in 1903, he was already involved in journalism and political activism before the end of the Great War, and by the start of the 1920s he was participating in the fierce controversies then dividing Muslim thinkers in the age of the Khilafat. In 1941, he founded the Jamaat-e-Islami, the ancestor of all the main Islamist movements in Pakistan and South Asia, including the most notorious terrorist groups.

For many Muslims, resurgent religious loyalties trumped national or imperial allegiances. Armed Islamic resistance movements challenged most of the colonial powers in the post-war years, and some of those wars blazed for a decade after the fighting ended on the western front. That wave of armed upsurges would be instantly recognizable to American strategists today, who are so accustomed to the idea of a turbulent Arc of Crisis stretching from North Africa through the Middle East and into Central and Southern Asia.

Just to give an idea of the scale of the movements, between 1919 and 1925 Britain’s newly founded Royal Air Force saw action against Muslim rebels and enemy regimes in Somalia, Afghanistan, Waziristan and Iraq. Throughout the 1920s, the Basmachi revolt fielded tens of thousands of guerrillas against the Soviet Union, fighting on behalf of an autonomous shari’a state and operating across most of Soviet Central Asia. And for Muslim insurgents, these struggles bore the holy sanction of jihad warfare. One rebel chieftain in the Caucasus promised to hang all who wrote from left to right.

Most of the revolts of these years grew directly out of wartime agitation, and some give a powerful sense of deja vu. Before the war, the region we now call Iraq was a loosely-connected region that included three wilayat or provinces – namely Mosul, Baghdad and Basra – all very diverse religiously. With the end of Ottoman power, the British brought the three together, hoping to dominate an area that was already a prime oil producer. But resistance swelled. By 1920, the British were meeting growing resistance from both Sunni and Shi’a populations, as former Ottoman officers buttressed the opposition. Leading Shi’a clergy and ayatollahs then issued fatwas proclaiming the illegitimacy of British rule and calling for rebellion.

Wide-ranging revolts across the huge territory became something close to a national insurrection in 1920, which the British defeated only by deploying the latest technology of air power and poison gas. After the revolt, the British ruled the mandate through their old Arab ally Faisal, who received the kingship in 1921. Never, though, would any later regime succeed in uniting those radically diverse forces that European empires had squeezed together into one unhappy union. Event of recent days show that the Iraq problem still has no clear solution.

One lasting legacy of the Iraqi conflict was the shift of Shi’a religious authority from the city of Najaf. The beneficiary was the emerging intellectual centre of Qom, in Persia, the nursery of generations of later ayatollahs. Although the school’s new heads disdained political activism, they could not fail to see how quickly and easily secular regimes had crumbled over the past decade, leaving clergy as the voices of moral authority and the defenders of ordinary believers. In 1921, the nineteen-year-old Ruhollah Khomeini was already a student at Qom, long before his later elevation to the prestigious rank of ayatollah. Like his counterparts in Egypt and British India, Khomeini grew up seeking a world order founded on a primitive vision of authentically Islamic religious authority.

For Muslims, the Great War changed everything. Modern political leaders look nervously at the power of radical Islam and especially those variants of strict fundamentalism that dream of returning to a pristine Islamic order, with states founded on strict interpretation of Islamic law, shari’a. Terms such as jihad provoke nightmares in Western political discourse. All these concepts were well known a century ago, but it was the crisis during and immediately following the war that brought them into the modern world.

What we think of today as modern Islam – assertive, self-confident and aggressively sectarian – is the product of the worldwide tumult associated with the Great War. Islam certainly existed in 1900, but the modern Islamic world order was new in 1918.

Philip Jenkins is Distinguished Professor of History and Co-Director of the Program on Historical Studies of Religion at theInstitute for Studies of Religion, Baylor University. His most recent book is The Great and Holy War: How World War I Became a Religious Crusade.

~~ More; http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2014/06/18/4027679.htm ~~ More: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-21/cia-planned-osama-bin-laden-demon-doll/5540580?WT.mc_id=newsmail

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The Iraqi Fall of Saigon?
by JEFFREY KAPLAN
Thursday | June 19 2014Forty years ago Americans were stunned by images of North Vietnamese tanks rolling into the heart of Saigon. The Vietnam War had bitterly divided the nation and cost 58,220 American lives. Responding to American public opinion, then President Gerald R. Ford declined to intervene—a tacit admission of defeat.

Today, Americans are stunned by images of another anti-American force, this one on the move toward Baghdad, only recently vacated by American troops. The war in Iraq has bitterly divided the nation. At this writing, the American-trained Iraqi army has collapsed, and pleas for American help are falling on deaf ears.

Déjà vu all over again?

As in Vietnam in 1975, when Saigon fell, the rapidly unfolding events in Iraq are beyond America’s capability to control. The US-led invasion gave the Shi’ite majority control of the government and solidified the Shi’a triangle of Iran, Lebanon and Southern Iraq.

US commanders successfully wooed the Sunnis for a time in the much heralded ‘Sunni Awakening’ during which they succeeded in allying Sunni tribal leaders with the Shi’ite government in the fight against Al Qaeda. The fact remained that the Iraqi Army, from the platoon level up, had already segregated themselves along confessional lines, with the Sunnis effectively relegated to the status of uniformed observers.

Once in power, the Shi’ite parties no longer felt beholden to keep their pledges to Sunni tribal leaders. The Americans departed the scene leaving Iraq free to form a Shi’ite state. However, the Shi’a electoral triumph was short lived. This time, events do not involve merely a change of management. Rather, the nation-state model is threatened.

As the Iraqi government faces collapse, events in neighboring Syria have taken on transcendent importance. There, the Alawite (heterodox offshoot of Shi’ism) Assad regime in Damascus claims to rule a nation that is 87% Muslim. The majority of these Muslims are Sunni. A transnational coalition of Sunni jihadists was on the brink of putting an end to the Assad regime when the Lebanese Shi’ite Hezbollah intervened, stabilizing the battlefront.

The Sunni forces in Iraq are led by a loosely confederated organization with the memorable name ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). Their objective reflects the fervent dream of all Sunni jihadists: the restoration of the Islamic Golden Age, the era of Muslim empires like the seventh-century Umayyads and the eighth-century Abbasids (such a restoration that would do away with the state borders imposed by the West during its colonial period). The Sunni confederation now threatening the Syrian regime harbors this dream. It is tantalizingly in reach because ISIS has captured Mosul, a mere 68 kilometers north of Baghdad.

With the Iraqi army effectively moribund, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the presumed marj-e-taqlid (the man recognized as the greatest scholar of the age), has called for Shi’ite volunteers to take up the fight. Tellingly, the call is to defend Shi’ite shrines rather than the Iraqi state. Fear for the shrines is real. In 2006, the bombing of the al-Askari mosque in Sammara, which is revered by Shi’ites, set off a Sunni vs. Shi’ite civil war that effectively ended American hopes for a united democratic Iraq.

Shi’ite fears are also quite real.

In the 1930s Sunni jihadist tribesmen brought the al-Saud regime to power, creating the modern kingdom of Saudi Arabia. When tribal Sunnis targeted the Shi’ite population in the oil rich Eastern Province, it took strong military intervention by the Saudi army to prevent massive bloodshed.

Also, in the 1990s the ruling Taliban (Sunni) in Afghanistan launched an unprovoked expedition against the Hazaras—the only Shi’ite tribe in the country—with the objective of purging Shi’ism from the nation. The public backlash against this enterprise left the Taliban without support when the Americans invaded the country after 9/11.

As for ISIS, it claims to release captured Sunni soldiers and execute Shi’ites.

With the certainty of a bloodbath in Iraq and, in tandem, a renewed push toward Damascus by Sunni jihadists in Syria, the US has many interests at stake but few options.

Radicalized citizens of Western nations are pouring into Syria to take up the fight and it is a near certainty that they will add Iraq to their itinerary. This is of grave concern because the return of battle hardened jihadists to the West promises a dangerous wave of violence. Western intelligence services are hyper-focused on tracking these fighters and arresting them on their return to their home countries.

These concerns pale in comparison to the costs of victory by Sunni Jihadists. In contrast to the overblown fears that a communist Vietnam would cause adjoining states to fall into communist hands, there is a serious risk of a convulsion that could engulf the weaker states in the Middle East. The hapless Lebanon will be first to fall.

This leaves the U.S. with the impossible choice of either supporting Shi’ite hegemony in Iraq when up to 90% of the world’s Muslims are Sunni, or standing aside and letting events take their course at the cost of the lives of former allies and vital oil interests in the region.

The Obama administration, whose failure to make a timely decision in Syria allowed foreign jihadists and Hezbollah to take command of the field, is again debating its response as Sunni and Shi’ite forces prepare for war.

Déjà vu?

Resources:“Statistical Information about Fatal Casualties of the Vietnam War.” National Archives, August 2013, Military Records. http://www.archives.gov/research/military/vietnam-war/casualty-statistics.html#category./.

“The World Factbook.” Central Intelligence Agency, May 29, 2014, Middle East: Syria. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html.

A fascinating tale told in Jeffrey Kaplan, “Eating Hearts: A Terrorist message For Hezbollah,” Sightings from the Martin Marty Center, University of Chicago, May 30, 2013. https://divinity.uchicago.edu/sightings/eating-hearts-terrorist-message-hezbollah-jeffrey-kaplan.

“Mapping the Global Muslim Population.” Pew Research Religion & Public Life Project, October 7, 2009, Polling and Analysis. http://www.pewforum.org/2009/10/07/mapping-the-global-muslim-population/.

Author, Jeffrey Kaplan, (Ph.D. UChicago 1993) is Associate Professor of Religious Studies and Director of the Institute for the Study of Religion, Violence and Memory, at the University of Wisconsin in Oshkosh. His latest book, Terrorist Groups and the New Tribalism: Terrorism’s Fifth Wave, examines millennial violence among African terrorist movements.

Editor, Myriam Renaud, is a Ph.D. Candidate in Theology at the University of Chicago Divinity School. She was a 2012-13 Junior Fellow in the Marty Center.

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